Tag Archives: Inflation

“Inflation soars” OMG

Those broadsheets that wanted to “remain” are looking for every scrap of bad news following the Brexit vote. For many stories it seems fair enough, newspapers always have their own take on events. Surely though, it’s a step too far when the reporting of official statistics “facts” falls below a certain threshold of quality, deliberately. Such was some of the reporting of Tuesday’s inflation figures. More reporting of events (and less speculation), a bit of perspective (not focusing on the latest month’s figures) and looking at the detail of the release would be good.  Continue reading “Inflation soars” OMG

Post-truth, post-Brexit statistics

The recent political coming and goings (the EU referendum, the arrival of a new Prime Minster and Labour’s travails) has seen a period of unusual attitudes to facts. More people seemingly want information and yet the (accurate) use of facts by politicians, some elements of the media and quite a few people has fallen to new lows. Experts are being rubbished, institutions’ reputations are being damaged, and the media is accused of being biased, prompting discussion of a post-truth society. There is much talk of a fractured Britain as technology and globalisation have hastened economic disruption affecting many livelihoods.

This note sets out a few steps – go local, kill the average, be open, do good research, un-spin and tell good stories – that the statistics world might take to help people reconnect with reality and help policy makers understand what might be needed if we are to establish a more sensible approach to debate and policy. It has much in common with the Data Manifesto published by the Royal Statistical Society two years ago.  Continue reading Post-truth, post-Brexit statistics

Even bigger boom and bust!

Gordon Brown and Ed Balls, architects of the pre-2007 mantra of “no return to boom and bust“, have left Parliament, and the contenders for the Labour leadership are busily reinventing their economic policy, so it’s only appropriate that the latest statistics reinvent the economic history! The figures show that the boom and bust were both greater than previously thought. And not for the first time!    Continue reading Even bigger boom and bust!

“slashed” = “little changed”

According to the Evening Standard today, the Bank of England’s growth forecast has been slashed and the inflation forecast is little changed. The former has been cut by 0.3 percentage points in 2016 and the latter by 0.4 points. Umm. Surely if 0.3 is slashed, 0.4 can’t be little changed.  Continue reading “slashed” = “little changed”

Average earnings – the real real growth

Summary:

  • Contrary to public perceptions most workers (and hard working families) are not suffering a cost of living crisis as often claimed in political debate.
  • The source of this widespread misconception is the national statistics which are deficient in this key area
  • A failure to properly allow for the, so-called, composition effect in earnings gives a very misleading impression and puts a huge question mark over the election’s key economic statistic
  • ONS commentary fails the “true and fair” test – publications are hard to find and do not explain what the figures really show
  • The standard comparison does not use the best measure of earnings and uses the wrong measure of inflation
  • Many of the huge number of newly created jobs are low paid so aggregate earnings in the economy are growing slowly but most workers (about 85%) are seeing very healthy real terms growth in their wages as they stay in the same job from one year to the next.
  • As the numbers are hard to find and poorly explained, politicians and others deliberately take advantage of the confusion and skew public perceptions.
  • The statistics board (UKSA) has ignored the issue. It is time to do its job properly.

Note: The ONS issued a statement about the 4% earnings growth on 12 March following a blog from the TUC. 

Continue reading Average earnings – the real real growth