Tag Archives: ONS

RPI – the background to the scandal

The RPI scandal has been a slow motion car crash since 2010. The nation’s most well-used and well-known statistic has been subjected to silly mistakes in production, weak and indecisive management, too much political influence and misuse, an overbearing economist mindset, more dogma than imagination, limited innovation, and mixed messages from those supposedly in control. This sad story with resulting confusion for users reflects a fundamental failure of governance. This blog provides a one-stop shop for anyone looking to understand the governance, or lack of it. The next chapter in this saga will come later this week with the publication of the House of Lords report into the RPI.  Continue reading RPI – the background to the scandal

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The UK’s “single market trade deficit”

I can see why many individual British businesses with established exports to the EU want the country to stay in the single market. The UK’s departure from it will be a change and, while the future might or might not offer more trading opportunities, change diverts corporate attention and can be disruptive. That said, from a national perspective – UK plc – the statistics show that the single market has increasingly been operating against the economic interests of the UK as a whole. In that macro sense, looking at the data, the single market is bad news as it’s driving the country’s ever-widening trade balance in goods. Continue reading The UK’s “single market trade deficit”

Ray Thomas

We all have a small number of people who heavily influence us. One of the big influences on my statistical thinking was Ray Thomas. I met him when we volunteered on several RSS committees. Sadly he died earlier this year. Links to some obituaries are below but his PhD thesis from 1999 is worth a read. The language and terms might be dated but “Statistics as facts about society” deals with many of the issues that plague us today.  Continue reading Ray Thomas

The end of Simon

What’s wrong with Simon, the name that is? It’s a good name. I’ve enjoyed having it. But it is seriously out of fashion and has been for a while. Prompted by the weird experience of finding myself sitting next to a much younger one at an event earlier this week, I was keen to see just how unpopular we have become. The answer is very unpopular.  Continue reading The end of Simon

The king and his fish: the RPI fairytale

The monthly release of the inflation figures (due tomorrow Wednesday 16th) is always a reminder of the futile attempts by ONS/UKSA to suppress the RPI. The RPI is the most popular statistic produced by the ONS (as measured by web hits, calls to ONS etc.) yet there’s no commentary on the RPI and the numbers do not appear in the 11 page press release. The breakdown of the RPI is hidden away in the back three pages of the 19 page data pack (just after the table that gives the rates for Lithuania, Slovakia and other EU states that the ONS presumably thinks are more interesting to users). To note the madness of this continuing practice, please find below a fairytale.  Continue reading The king and his fish: the RPI fairytale

The truth about the RPI – some brief comments

I spoke at an event about the Retail Prices Index (RPI) last week and made three points – that there is a misunderstanding about the formula effect, ONS is too influenced by economists’ ‘group think’ and weaknesses in governance. These can all be resolved easily, returning RPI to full use, if ONS and UKSA wants to. It was widely agreed that “the mess” had to be sorted out, and as the RPI cannot be killed off some modest changes to it are required.  Continue reading The truth about the RPI – some brief comments

The UK’s trade deficit in goods

This is about a bad trend in some questionable data: the official data says that the UK has a huge balance of trade deficit in goods, it’s getting worse and the driving force behind the trend has been the growing deficit with the EU. True? Probably. This trade deterioration needs to be noted, diagnosed, discussed as part of the Brexit negotiations and reversed.  Continue reading The UK’s trade deficit in goods

The future of the RPI

Can the Retail Prices Index be killed off? Should it be killed off and, if so, for what reason? Or is reform needed? A meeting is coming up (at the RSS in London, on 13 June, book here) to discuss the future of the RPI and the changes needed to all consumer price measures to keep them fit for purpose. Why not come and hear the views of John Pullinger, the UK’s National Statistician, and other experts?

Continue reading The future of the RPI

The BBC’s unhelpful article on the gender pay gap

The gender pay gap is a sensitive, highly topical subject and the deadline is approaching for companies to report their data, often for the first time. It’s a shame then that the BBC article from their “data journalists” setting out to explain what’s happening, “Gender pay gap deadline: What to know“, misses some simple points and does little to help anyone who might be confused. The data is not complicated but there are various aggregate statistics in the public domain which are based on different definitions, and thus need to be used carefully and described clearly.  Continue reading The BBC’s unhelpful article on the gender pay gap

The price of a house – a stupid average

The ONS published this week a new – I’d say conceptually more sound – experimental house price index. It is based on the stock of homes not the flow so tells us what’s happening to the whole market not the price of what’s just been sold.  The estimate of the average price is lower than under the old methodology – £194,000 compared to £215,000 in the old measure, about 10% lower. The stroke of the methodologist’s pen has made homes more affordable even though no prices have changed! Perhaps this is the time to reflect on the full range of house price estimates at our disposal – and, dare I say it, how meaningless the average numbers are? Depending on what you count and how you add the numbers up, the resulting averages can be wildly different, as much as £100,000 apart.  Continue reading The price of a house – a stupid average