Tag Archives: Research

The UK’s “single market trade deficit”

I can see why many individual British businesses with established exports to the EU want the country to stay in the single market. The UK’s departure from it will be a change and, while the future might or might not offer more trading opportunities, change diverts corporate attention and can be disruptive. That said, from a national perspective – UK plc – the statistics show that the single market has increasingly been operating against the economic interests of the UK as a whole. In that macro sense, looking at the data, the single market is bad news as it’s driving the country’s ever-widening trade balance in goods. Continue reading The UK’s “single market trade deficit”

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Ray Thomas

We all have a small number of people who heavily influence us. One of the big influences on my statistical thinking was Ray Thomas. I met him when we volunteered on several RSS committees. Sadly he died earlier this year. Links to some obituaries are below but his PhD thesis from 1999 is worth a read. The language and terms might be dated but “Statistics as facts about society” deals with many of the issues that plague us today.  Continue reading Ray Thomas

Germany’s declining population and migrants

Germany has a different position on migrants than the UK because it desperately needs people, any people, to plug the huge hole left by its demographic crisis. According to the Daily Telegraph, an EU Commission spokesperson said the “German move (to welcome migrants) is a welcome act of solidarity”. I suspect Ms Merkel’s stance is not so much humanitarian as deeply practical. Taking a million or more immigrants is a great idea if your country is projected to see its population fall by about 3 million in the next 25 years with crippling economic and social consequences.  Continue reading Germany’s declining population and migrants