I can see why many individual British businesses with established exports to the EU want the country to stay in the single market. The UK’s departure from it will be a change and, while the future might or might not offer more trading opportunities, change diverts corporate attention and can be disruptive. That said, from a national perspective – UK plc – the statistics show that the single market has increasingly been operating against the economic interests of the UK as a whole. In that macro sense, looking at the data, the single market is bad news as it’s driving the country’s ever-widening trade balance in goods. Continue reading The UK’s “single market trade deficit”
This is about a bad trend in some questionable data: the official data says that the UK has a huge balance of trade deficit in goods, it’s getting worse and the driving force behind the trend has been the growing deficit with the EU. True? Probably. This trade deterioration needs to be noted, diagnosed, discussed as part of the Brexit negotiations and reversed. Continue reading The UK’s trade deficit in goods
Trade is at the centre of the EU referendum debate and yet there is a question mark over the accuracy of the numbers. It’s widely reported that 44% of the UK’s exports go to the EU. The true figure is almost certainly a few percentage points lower and the figures for bilateral flows between some countries are said to be “seriously misleading”. This note asks how wrong an official statistic has to be before the UK Statistics Authority ceases to call it a National Statistic? The ONS has a consultation out on trade figures closing this week and the next and final set of monthly UK trade figures before the EU referendum are due on 9 June. Continue reading Trade statistics – are they good enough?